The protests in Iran are affecting the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Further there are the US sanctions, that are not about to end.

Iran’s negotiations with the United States on the nuclear deal are currently on hold. The contract is important for Iran in order to further promote oil exports. A failure would mean a slump in oil exports. OPEC and Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) assume that crude oil production has only slowly recovered since 2020 after its significant slump in 2018. Negotiations are expected to resume after the US congressional elections on November 8th.

At the same time, Iran’s economy – especially online trade – is struggling with the internet restrictions imposed to contain the protests. In view of the threat of unemployment for many people and the enormous loss of purchasing power – food prices have risen by more than 70 percent within a month – conflicts could intensify.

The GTAI therefore expects a significant weakening of GDP and does not rule out a recession.

Source: GTAI (german)